Yesterday, before I went to the climbing hall, I sewed up very simple toiles of both of those patterns. A quick try-on showed me that on the half kimono-sleeve one, my alterations had worked. The raglan one had a nice clean fit under the arm but a weird bulge in front of each shoulder, a to-be-expected consequence of that trick I used on the sleeve so I wouldn't have a dart in the sleeve.
The outcome seemed clear: Just make the half-kimono-sleeve one, the best one overall.
And then, I tried both on again today... A bit more carefully... (oh, and don't pay attention to the odd seam on the collar. I only made the under collar for the toile because it is quicker and the facing does not actually change the shape)
This is the half-kimono-sleeve jacket:
Oh, and I should lengthen the jacket at center back and adjust that bottom edge to be a nice smooth line.
And this is the raglan one:
No bulging fabric under the arm here. The weirdly placed excess material in front of the shoulders is on the seam lines, so it is easy to take in. With that issue out of the way, this version starts to look really good.
It also needs some more length at center back and the front bodice should be taken in a bit at the bottom edge.
With the adjusted raglan version, the only really difference seems to be in that forward tilt of those sleeves.
Of course, I am never going to get that sculpted effect in this very thin fabric. My real fabric is thicker and I don't mind using some light interfacing but I won't go all-out with horsehair and heavy tailoring.
But the shape is clear: Those sleeves curve forward and the hem looks shortest at the front. I can adjust the hem of my sleeve any way I like but that curve is a bit more difficult. I might take in the front seams (on either version) a bit. That would help a bit. The original may have the seam in an unusual place, more to the front (or have an extra seam) in order to get that shape. With my softer and slightly stretchy fabric, I don't think I'll bother though.
Which one to choose?